Coup's Takeaways: HEAT Stay Attached With Threes But Jokic, Denver's Offense Proves Too Much
1. Few teams have been a tougher opponent for Miami over the past six seasons than the Denver Nuggets and it didn’t get any easier when Jimmy Butler turned his ankle in the first quarter.
Hot start for Denver, three straight threes and plenty of transition work – five of their first seven makes were Nikola Jokic assists – as they opened 17-6, but the story of Denver games doesn’t start until Jokic sits and Denver goes deeper into their rotation. When Jokic is on the court during these early days of the season his team has been +8.1 per 100 possessions in Net Rating, but when he sits they’ve been -22.0. So while Denver was missing Aaron Gordon – Peyton Watson stepped in to provide a facsimile of Gordon’s defense – as one of Jokic’s favorite targets, their offense was running as you’d expect it to run, Denver taking a 40-27 lead through the first quarter.
The very moment Jokic left the game, though, Miami went to zone and immediately went on a 10-0 run, Bam Adebayo getting inside as some threes started to fall. Jokic soon returned to steady the ship – he played 21 of 24 first-half minutes – while the HEAT stayed attached with Herro and Duncan Robinson hitting three after three in the face of Denver making over half their attempts from distance. Nuggets up 71-60 at the break after they found Christian Braun in the corner on a last second transition play, Jokic a +21.
Haywood Highsmith started the second half in place of Nikola Jovic, just as he did Wednesday against Phoenix, while Pelle Larsson subbed in with Butler out. The results weren’t any different, Denver opening the third much like they did the first this time with a 15-4 run as the lead grew to 22. HEAT kept hitting threes to give themselves a chance but it was a slow grind, Jokic getting to his triple double midway through the period. Back to zone with Adebayo on the bench, Denver’s defense starting to get a little loose on the other end, giving up a pair of back cuts. Down to 14 by the end of the period after 11 more Herro points, non-Jokic minutes due early in the fourth.
With Jamal Murray (28 points on 17 shots, some stiff-arm jumpers late) on the floor this time, those non-Jokic minutes didn’t go quite as well as Denver stretched the lead back to 18, the zone no longer flummoxing as the climb got steeper. Back to 14 soon after off a pair of Denver turnovers, but it was short lived as a Watson jumper in the heart of the zone put it back to 19. Good thing Robinson kept firing away, another three and another steal bringing it all the way down to 13 again, another steal and Herro (24 points on 21 shots) three after that and it was down to 10.
No give up, not even close, another Robinson three (No. 6 for him, No. 19 for Miami) putting it back to seven. Denver’s never really slowed down, turnovers their only weakness in this one, as they ran prevent offense with Murray and Jokic running clock the rest of the way. Denver finishes up, 135-122, as Miami heads to Minnesota.
2. We end up saying some version of this most every year but you can’t ignore how many issues Jokic gives Miami’s defense. He’s a walking mismatch wherever he goes – as tough as Adebayo plays him, he’s giving up quite a few pounds in that matchup – which limits Miami’s schematic options a bit when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll, and along with Luka Doncic nobody else is better at beating the HEAT’s structure with the pass. Miami wants to build a wall to block off the paint, Jokic passes right over the top of it.
It's all been said before, but what else can you say when Jokic finishes a +26 to go with 30 points (11-of-13 shooting), 11 rebounds and 14 assists? Sure, maybe the weak spot in this Colossus of Rhodes was the five turnovers, the HEAT tipping some of his more daring passes, but that group is far past getting rattled when their main guys are on the floor. As Miami got close late, Jokic responded with play after play, he and Murray running 18-20 seconds off the clock each possession and finishing with a score. Denver finished with an Offensive Rating of 133.7, likely far better with Jokic on the floor, and that’s the game. Every team in the league has been searching for a counter to him for years but the truth is there aren’t many beyond his teammates not converting on all that playmaking (Denver shot 18-of-34 from deep themselves). He may do it in his own way but there haven’t been many more dominant players in league history and there’s no other reason for why the Nuggets have been such a tough beat for Miami in recent times.
3. If you’re wondering exactly how Miami nearly made this a clutch game after falling so far behind in the third, the answer is threes and turnovers. The zone helped a bit with the latter, several clunky Denver miscues leading to Miami runouts, 11 steals on 17 forced turnovers in all. Miami hasn’t gotten to this part of their game quite as often as they had in preseason but clearly it remains a focus. While Herro may be driving the halfcourt offense as well as he ever has, those pick-six plays remain a crucial component of the HEAT’s efficiency.
The threes told the story, though, especially when Denver was matching every two-point shot with an answer, 23-of-27 at the rim and 6-of-11 in the upper paint. For the most part 20-of-43 from deep would qualify as the best shooting night of the season for many teams once the 82 are done, and sure enough 20 makes would have been second-best for Miami last year. That’s how special the shooting was to make this close, one after another after another, and while Herro remained hot it was Robinson who closed the gap late, 6-of-10 from deep on his way to 20 points on 12 shots. Robinson started the first couple weeks a little slow from the outside but there was never any serious worry as long as the body was right. Robinson is one of the best shooters in franchise history, possibly one of the best in league history once all is said and done, and the mechanics never really waver. Even the one prolonged slump of his career, a few seasons back, he answered with 40 percent shooting in the back half of that same year. It doesn’t all look quite like it used to, fewer handoffs with Adebayo these days despite a few more minutes together tonight, but the shot is the shot. Even if it wasn’t enough tonight, it was the umpteenth reminder of just how quickly Robinson can change a game.