Coup’s Takeaways: Lillard Goes Nova Early, HEAT Storm Back In Second Half But Fall Short In Final Minute
1.This was one of those games where you had to recalibrate in a hurry, Giannis Antetokounmpo being downgraded from probable to questionable to out all within the 90 minutes before the game began.
Where Antetokounmpo’s downhill trucking top of mind the focus quickly shifted to Damian Lillard, not only an incredibly talented offensive player in his own right but one of the few remaining ballhandlers and playmakers remaining on Milwaukee’s roster. If Miami could contain Lillard, where was Milwaukee’s offense going to come from?
Lillard had his own say in things, and then some, hitting three triples in a row in the first few minutes and scoring 17 points in the first six minutes as Milwaukee jumped out to a double-digit lead. Miami wasn’t having much trouble getting into the paint against the perimeter offerings of Milwaukee, but a handful of misses around the rim and a cold stretch from three was all it took for Milwaukee to put them in a hole. All uphill from there, Erik Spoelstra bringing out the zone – it jammed up Milwaukee even as Bobby Portis hit some jumpers against it – as the HEAT marched to the free-throw line 23 times in the first half, Miami down 65-51 at the break.
It looked like Miami was in a worse place on paper than they were. The Bucks had attempted just one shot in the restricted area, having also gone 6-of-12 on midrange jumpers, and took just five free-throws. If Milwaukee, 13-of-21 for 62 percent from three, cooled at all on their jumpers then the door was going to be sitting wide open with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro all generating consistent opportunities to get downhill. Sure, that’s a loaded “if” but one well within reasonable expectations, especially as Miami’s defense dialed in as the first half wore on.
Not the best start on that front to open the third, Milwaukee hitting three more from deep to go up 22, including three more from Lillard to give him 31 points and eight threes with 8:55 left in the third. Miami upped their pressure from there, forcing the ball out of Lillard’s hands, Adebayo picking up his fourth foul a bit of a thorn in their side. Still, Miami kept running their stuff, Pelle Larsson’s movement giving the offense a little life as open looks kept coming, Butler making a living in the paint and at the line. After Duncan Robinson drained three off a Herro-Butler-Robinson three-man game that twisted up Milwaukee’s switches, the score was only 82-69 with Milwaukee’s bench starting to rotate in.
One Herro three later, the lead down to 10, the run was on and the building was alive. With Miami putting two on the ball in any subsequent Lillard action, Milwaukee’s remaining players couldn’t capitalize on advantage situations as the HEAT continued their diet of good look after good look, the lead down to five through three, a 26-9 run in all as the Bucks finally cooled off.
No Lillard on the court to open the fourth, Milwaukee sitting in their own zone long enough to get a few stops and push the lead back to nine. It was but a temporary respite, Miami coming right back. A nice burst from Rozier, a pair of jumpers and a finish over Brook Lopez, had it down to two.
Milwaukee was hanging on for life from there on, all tied up at 96. More Rozier magic, a very poor Milwaukee turnover, up four with just over 30 seconds to play, led to Rozier for three in transition. One point game, 29 to go, one stop needed. Miami forces a shot clock violation to wipe away an AJ Green three.
Then, Herro missed a good look at a three – the same spread inbound set Spoelstra ran the previous game – Taurean Prince made two free-throws and Rozier missed a deep one at the buzzer. Bucks win, 106-103, putting Miami at 1-2 in NBA Cup play, a knockout round berth still possible but a longshot.
2. You knew it was coming eventually. The run, yes, but the defense, too.
Miami started the game in their base coverage, Bam Adebayo coming up to the level of the pick to deter Lillard’s quick-twitch threes while Miami switched when any other player set the screen. Lillard made quick work of those coverages in the way very few players can, hitting over the top as he either beat the switch or shot it in the switch pocket while the switch was happening.
You knew Erik Spoelstra wasn’t going to let him attack base coverage all night, though. Once Lillard went on one more quick run to open the third, it was all blitzing and long, long shows – to avoid the switches Miami didn’t want – from there. The risk with that aggressive of coverage is that you leave the rest of your defense playing 3-on-4 for a few beats while that second defender, the one that went to Lillard, recovers. Milwaukee, however, without Antetokounmpo, didn’t have much in the way of quick attackers left. For every drive they scored on there were twice as many instances where Lillard would get off the ball and the offense would just stall out as the receiver failed to make the next required play, be it putting the ball on the deck, making the open look or finding the open man. Even when the ball hit the weakside they were coming up empty. It wasn’t an uncommon sight to see a Bucks player, having picked up their dribble, at 30 feet just looking for a safe pass with the shot clock dwindling.
What was clever in that Spoelstra took off the blitz in the middle of the fourth, trusting Adebayo to show and recover quickly without giving Milwaukee a free advantage. Space was gone for Lillard (37 points on 17 shots), but it was AJ Green with two huge, late threes playing off of Lillard’s gravity, as he stretched out Adebayo’s shows farther and farther, which kept the night alive for Milwaukee.
3. It will be lost in the loss but Rozier almost saved this night for Miami. Butler did his thing throughout, his usual 23 points on 12 shots, but with Herro having a cool evening it was Rozier who picked up the offense late, 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting including 3-of-5 from three.
None of it was particularly complicated, Rozier catching on the weakside as the HEAT continued to penetrate the paint. The finish over Lopez at the rim was a thing of beauty, but more than anything it’s good on Rozier for responding to coming off the bench after starting before his brief foot injury. He may have started the season below his offensive standards, shooting below 40 percent from the field, but anyone familiar with Rozier’s past scoring exploits was just waiting for the tide to turn. Does a 17-point night count as an explosion for an explosive offensive player? Probably not, but it’s a sign of what he can do regularly, either off the bench or as a starter. He’s too good for his time not to come.
Credit Rozier with taking the toughest defensive assignment, too, staying in front of Lillard down the stretch as he and Adebayo defended those actions. The shots will come for Rozier, no doubt, but defending like that impacts winning just as equally.