Heat Training Camp 2024 Preview: One Question for Each Player
Updated: Oct 3
With media day looming and training camp following directly after, we asked one question about each player on the roster to get you ready for this season's storylines.
Bam Adebayo – How Real Can The Shooting Become?
After years of Will He Or Won’t He largely prompted by Adebayo himself teasing the prospect, the threes were on the menu for the first time in earnest in the final weeks of last season. Beginning March 13 against the Denver Nuggets, Adebayo attempted 1.6 threes per game while making half of them, taking at least one in 20 of 22 contests including the five-game series against Boston. Had he taken threes at the same rate throughout the season, he would’ve matched the volume of Jonas Valanciunas.
Will Adebayo continue to shoot those shots? Given that he was also taking them during international play whilst often sharing the same lineup with Anthony Davis, evidence points to yes. But the crucial question has always been less about whether Adebayo will attempt a handful a week, it’s whether or not he’ll take enough to make defenses respect the three with requisite alterations to spacing. Consider first that only nine centers took at least four threes a game last season, and of that group only six converted at a league-average rate or better. Where Adebayo’s percentages end up is anyone’s guess even with the small-sample hot streak he enjoyed in those final regular season weeks, but to reach the volume of that elite group he’ll have to more than double his attempts.
Whether he needs to do so or not is up for debate. The benefits of defenses respecting him as an accurate shooter would be obvious and plenty, but so too should the potential downsides – a reduction in team offensive efficiency while pursuing long-term gains – be considered. If Adebayo can take his perimeter game to new heights there’s likely no better time to do so given the HEAT’s selection of center Kel’el Ware in the middle of the first round. If those two are going to play together, and the defensive possibilities are intriguing to say the very least, nothing would grease those offensive wheels more than one of them being capable of pulling a defender out of the lane to give the other space to operate in the middle of the floor. Erik Spoelstra has experimented with two-big lineups in camp before and Adebayo has taken threes in preseason before so the early returns on this question aren’t coming until the regular season opens. And even then, Adebayo has already shown that things can change during the 82.
Jimmy Butler – How Many More Double Teams Are Coming?
One of the undercurrents of Miami’s offense during the Jimmy Butler era has been that, along with the sometimes awkward spacing in lineups featuring two stars who don’t typically stretch defenses beyond the arc, they’ve generally lacked a player who can consistently draw two defenders to the ball. Sure, sometimes a Kyle Lowry or Tyler Herro or Terry Rozier could get hot off the dribble and find themselves getting blitzed or Duncan Robinson would freak out a group of defenders as he came off a handoff, but there was rarely that presence that would consistently cause an opposing defense to break its own systemic containment by design.
You’ve had to look closely, but Miami has slowly made inroads on this subject through almost brute force. While efforts to expand their offensive repertoire into something more viable and reliable for a lengthy postseason run has sometimes contributed to static fourth-quarter offerings, gradually boosting the isolation and post-up offerings of Adebayo alongside Butler – over 20 combined such opportunities per 100 possessions last year, up from about 12 in their first season together, with most gains coming from Adebayo – has drawn notice around the league. Of their 1,342 post-ups and isolations last year, Adebayo and Butler drew 128 double teams, and while that 9.5 percent double rate seems small (tracking data typically undercounts the number of actual doubles) it is the highest rate they’ve shared through five seasons. There would be weeks-long stretches without any doubles at all, but then there would be weeks where seemingly every team was sending an extra defender or at least showing help on the strong side of the floor. In theory this should be a boon to an offense that has needed every bit of defense-tilting advantage, but even when the doubles have been regular the rewards have not always presented themselves. So, if the doubles are going to come more often – Jaime Jaquez Jr. could start seeing more as well – can Miami use them to boost their offense back into the upper half of the league after two seasons in the lower third?
Tyler Herro – Will He Start With Terry Rozier?
This question isn’t particularly fair to either player, and isn’t meant to presuppose fault. Neither player did nor said anything wrong. It’s just a question that must be asked because it was the natural question when Terry Rozier was acquired before the trade deadline, and with the pair only sharing the court for 11 games and 188 total minutes – not all of those with Butler in the lineup – there wasn’t much of an opportunity for an answer to present itself.
Rozier and Herro aren’t the same player, but their profiles aren’t far off. Rozier gets downhill more often and generates moderately more rim pressure, Herro gets up more threes. Both get to the line at about the same rate and have similar assist rates. Their combinations of usage and true-shooting percentages are right in line with each other once you throw out Rozier’s first week or so of Miami acclimation. Both are good, very useful offensive players. Plus shooting makes each fit into just about any lineup. The question really isn’t if they can be on the court together. They can, and last year there was clearly a willingness from both parties to make it work. The question is whether playing them together is what’s best for the team, whether splitting up two higher usage guards and staggering their minutes raises Miami’s 48-minute offensive floor.
When Miami traded Kyle Lowry for Rozier they were moving a low usage guard focused on setting teammates up for a high-usage guard that the team will also need to set his teammates up. On a team now replete with shot creators, that naturally creates more of a balancing act when everyone is healthy and available. Sometimes you take a bunch of high usage rate, put them together and the result isn’t quite as multiplicative as you’d like it to be. Other times the players adjust, find the balance, and you get something special. All the while the defense needs enough support to sustain as one of this group’s strengths. We haven’t seen nearly enough to have answers in either direction, leaving us with a clear and obvious storyline to follow in the opening month of the season.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. – How Far Can The Star Shot Creation Go?
It didn’t take long for Jaquez Jr. to break out during his rookie season and doing so as a No. 18 pick is already beating the odds by a degree or two. What was a bit more unusual is that he broke out while looking quite a bit like Jimmy Butler as far as his style of play, less a role player and more a situational shot creator. Yes, he proved to be a dynamic cutter off the ball so this isn’t to say Jaquez Jr. couldn’t play with Miami’s higher usage guys, he just popped the most when Spoelstra was relying on him to shoulder the offense for two minutes at a time, feeding him in the post and setting him up for spot where he could attack mismatches in many of the same setups and structures run for Butler. There isn’t a single thing wrong with any of that, but when you’re the No. 18 pick that typically means you’ve landed on a team that already has some star shot creation, at least enough to compete for playoff spots. So, on a team that already has several on-ball creators, is Jaquez Jr. going to have ample studio space to grow and develop that part of his game or will he be a creator in shorter bursts again as he acts the supporter – where raising his 32.2 percentage from three becomes more of a focus – for most of his minutes?
There’s no right or wrong answer, it’s just a matter of what he’ll be asked to do. Tyrese Maxey was drafted into a comparable situation in Philadelphia in 2020, posting 23 percent usage in first year only for it to drop to 20.2 percent as the team acquired James Harden and Maxey had to adjust his role. That little blip in role consistency clearly didn’t have an adverse effect on Maxey’s career and Jaquez Jr. – who has the potential to develop into a 25-plus percent usage player – has plenty of time. If he happens to take a small leap, in whatever sized opportunity he has, in both efficiency and usage in his second year, though, we’ll be keeping any eye on whether or not Spoelstra adjusts the offensive pie chart along the way.
Haywood Highsmith – Is He Ready To Be A Full-Time No. 1 Defender?
Highsmith earned himself a new contract with Miami after a season of steady 3-and-D play and with Caleb Martin now in Philadelphia the HEAT aren’t exactly loaded with proven perimeter defenders. He made himself valuable and now the HEAT will likely be relying on that value for night-to-night consistency in a big way. Sure, Spoelstra will put Adebayo on just about any primary wing scorer when the time comes and Butler is also a great option in high-leverage moments – though he’s often best deployed off the ball – but for getting through 82 games of elite scorers Highsmith will be the call whenever he’s on the floor. With Miami switching Adebayo out on the perimeter less and less as the roster has changed over the years, having a steady one-on-one defender will be key to once again finishing with a Top 10, at minimum, defensive rating.
What we don’t know is how often Highsmith will actually be on the floor.
Between him, Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic, Spoelstra has several options all with different skillsets and strengths. Highsmith was typically playing at least 20 minutes a night last year when he was healthy, but there were stretches where he fell into a fringe rotation slot, coming in more for situational minutes rather than consistent ones. While we’ve little reason to doubt his capability, defending the best player every night for 25-30 minutes is different than coming off the bench, when opposing teams are already cycling in their own subs, for 15-20.
Nikola Jovic – What Is He Going To Be?
All of the players on the roster, Jovic is probably still the biggest mystery box even entering his third year. Granted that isn’t too much of a surprise given the 21-year-old Jovic missed most of his first season with an injury and didn’t factor into the rotation during the first half of last year, but so many interesting tools were flashed during his elongated stint with the starting group it’s impossible not to imagine his career going in a dozen different directions.
Jovic shot 39 percent on catch-and-shoot threes last year and had some good defensive moments out in space so there’s clear supporting role potential alongside Adebayo and Butler. He also made a number of threes off the bounce, was often used to advance the ball off the glass to initiate offense and has flashed advanced court vision, all of which leads you to believe that there is room for a bit more usage (only 17 percent last year) on a team where on-ball reps aren’t just sitting around waiting to be picked up. As with Jaquez Jr. another season spent in a supporting role isn’t going to stunt his growth, but anytime there is clearly more there with a young player the question is how that more fits into the context of a team trying to compete for a title. As a floor, Jovic has everything you need to be a high-level role player assuming his gains on the defensive end continue to trend in a positive direction.
Duncan Robinson – What’s Next?
Robinson is the opposite of Jovic in the sense that where the young player is a fountain of potential, Robinson – now 30 – might be the steadiest contributor on the team. We know what he can do, we know what sort of impact he has on the offensive side of the floor and we can expect him to end each season with shooting numbers expected of one the league’s elite.
That’s what we would have said about him before last season, at least, before he tripled his two-point rate and doubled his assist rate. If you ask Robinson, he’d likely say it was less a case of skillset evolution and more a natural reaction to how defenses were covering him, with more and more teams running him off the line while conceding driving lanes. Either way the results were a handful of votes for Most Improved Player in his sixth year and a few turns of the dial on our expectations of him. Robinson might be reliable and steady and known. After last season it’s only fair to ask whether there’s anything else he’s ready to show us.
Josh Richardson – When Will He Be Ready?
There aren’t many questions about the player, now a proven veteran with a two-way skillset who was playing 25 minutes a night for Miami last year before going down with a shoulder injury. There just hasn’t been much news about his availability since the middle of summer and for a team in need of two-way role players, Richardson’s availability will be the first topic brought up when Media Day opens on Monday.
Kel’el Ware – Can He Play With Bam?
While it’s usually best practice to allow rookies some grace and time to adjust to the league, the moment Ware was taken with the No. 15 pick the question on the mind of just about anyone following the HEAT was immediately his prospects for playing alongside Adebayo.
So we start with Ware in a place we’ve been with many other centers. It works if they can shoot with accuracy and volume (Meyers Leonard, Kelly Olynyk), and Spoelstra uses those groups, the offense veers toward clunk if they can’t and Spoelstra doesn’t use those groups. It’s a simple equation that we discussed earlier with Adebayo. Ware certainly has the mechanics for long-range shooting, but you have to prove yourself before you see the impact on the floor, and the proving can take some time unless you’re an early outlier in a prolific sense. Plus, there’s the matter of what sort of opponent the pairing is working against. You’ll take early returns against anyone, but what we’re really after is postseason equity.
We also shouldn’t make the mistake of assuming two center lineups will automatically be good defensively. Ware has all the physical tools and the potential that comes with them. Every rookie needs reps on that end. Teams will test his mind. No matter how much size you have on the floor, smart teams will find a way to part one defender on the weakside and challenge the other in pick-and-roll. The possibilities here are tantalizing, let’s just let it happen organically. If Spoelstra sees something that’s ready to be tested, he’ll test it.
Alec Burks – Where Does He Figure Into The Rotation?
Burks, 33 years old, will be on his eighth team since being drafted in 2011 having provided scoring punch at each and every stop. The moment Burks steps onto the floor you can expect a usage rate in the 20’s, above-average three-point shooting and an ability to create on-demand looks in the mid-range. As an off-ball player Burks fits into any group. On ball, the shot profile may be similar to that of Miami’s other creators. There will no doubt be games this year when others aren’t available to suit up and Burks’ offense grows in importance. Whether he’s called on night-to-night remains to be seen with so much of the rotation in the early stages of coalescence around him, particularly on a team theoretically in need of offensive juice while not necessarily lacking in offensive creators.
Thomas Bryant – Is He The Backup Center?
Bryant only appeared in 38 games for Miami last season with Spoelstra opting to run smaller bench lineups with Love at center, but Orlando Robinson also appeared in 36 games as Spoelstra alternated on which of his reserve centers to play spot minutes.
Naturally fans will want to pencil in a first-round pick like Ware into early season minutes, but there’s a world where Ware requires seasoning before earning regular minutes and a true center will be called upon to fill the in between shifts when Spoelstra is balancing out his lineups.
Kevin Love – How Many Non-Center Minutes Are Coming?
Miami’s offense was never better than when Love manned the five spot, that five-out spacing giving Butler plenty of space with which to attack the middle of the floor. When Love was the only center on the floor, the HEAT (No. 21 in offense overall) scored 121.8 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have been second in the league behind Boston. Those lineups made sacrifices defensively to be sure. They were so good at producing point it didn’t really matter. Love is also 36 now, a year after Spoelstra managed his minutes to just 17 a game, and an argument could be made for using those lineups more selectively to limit to the game-to-game stress on Love. If that were the case, using Love alongside other centers more often – so he isn’t the center of attention on defense when Miami isn’t in zone – might be an option, particularly if Ware proves ready for early minutes.
Pelle Larsson – How Much Two-Way Potential Is There?
Larsson will come into the league with a reputation as a shooter, but Summer League showed there’s more to him that that, more creation, and especially more physicality as he used his shoulders to get downhill and create finishing space in the lane. Where we see physicality, we also see defensive potential, at least in the mold of someone like Max Strus who was able to use his strength to hold up with the ball in front of him. It might be too much to expect that sort of thing early on for a rookie, but there will be flashes if there’s more to be developed. Everyone will be watching Larsson’s make or miss. Let’s see how he can manage a switch, too.
Isaiah Stevens – Will The Shooting Translate?
Stevens averaged the third-most assists at the Las Vegas Summer League, 7.8 a game across six appearances on Miami’s road to a Summer League title. That steady playmaking has surely lingered in the minds of many a fan who has wondered about the HEAT’s reserve guards over the years, at least when it comes to “true” point guards. What was even more eye popping was that Stevens hit nearly 64 percent from three on 1.8 attempts, a more than reasonable hot streak for a 40 percent college shooter. At six feet being a threat from outside, ideally off the dribble, is a must to keep the defense honest and open up passing lanes for that court vision to thrive on. Stevens has the pedigree in that area, it’s just a matter of seeing it.
Zyon Pullin – What Model Will He Follow?
While both Pullin and Stevens join the team as five-year college players, Stevens feels a bit more fully formed for the pro level based on what we saw during Summer League. Which isn’t to say Pullin doesn’t have potential, merely that it’s less clear what path he will follow. Will his development track target more lead guard, playmaking skills, or more of downhill scoring role after he averaged 1.7 assists and hardly attempted any threes during the offseason?
Keshad Johnson – Will He Follow The Typical Undrafted Schedule?
Miami’s developmental projects often follow a loose three-year plan, spending much or all of the first season with the Sioux Falls Skyforce, getting their feet wet with regular time in the second and then, if they’re ready, joining the rotation in earnest in their third year. There are always exceptions, Josh Richardson became a rotational mainstay midway through his rookie year – he was a second-round pick – and Duncan Robinson burst onto the scene in his second year whereas Gabe Vincent wasn’t a regular until his third season. If anyone is going to be on the early side of things, Johnson may be the most likely candidate as a 6-foot-7 wing on a team that could be in search of defensive reinforcements. Granted, Johnson wasn’t much of a shooter in college until his fifth season when he made 38.7 percent on 2.6 attempts so there will be plenty to prove on that end, but most everything Miami will be asking of Highsmith is something they could also ask of Johnson, currently on a two-way deal, down the road. How long that road is will ultimately be up to him.
Josh Christopher – Where Will The Opportunity Come From?
Christopher is an interesting story because of the way he remade and restructured his game for a Summer League role with Miami. Previously a very offensive-minded player with Houston, Christopher made his mark on that end scoring 19 a game with 52 percent shooting from deep. It was his defensive growth, a willingness to defend to Miami’s expectations, which might have truly unlocked his big-league potential. Where exactly he fits on the roster is a different question, but as long as Christopher builds on what he started in June and July it’ll be a good question to have to ask.
Dru Smith – How Soon Will He Be Ready To Play?
Smith had his moments at backup point after returning to Miami last season – he had previously left to take a contract with Brooklyn – only for a knee injury to knock him out for the year. He still has the game to offer an approximation of what made Vincent so valuable to Miami a couple years ago, it’s just a matter of getting back on court and back on track.
Nassir Little – Can He Follow The Caleb Martin Path?
While the HEAT replenished their undrafted pipeline a bit – at least as far as the talent on display during their Summer League Championship run – Little is a different kind of late addition to the roster, an experienced five-year veteran out of Portland and Phoenix trying to find his way in the league. The closest comps would be Martin, waived after two seasons in Charlotte who eventually made a name for himself with the HEAT, and RJ Hampton, who had four years of experience before taking a chance in Miami that didn’t pan out. In other words, there’s no guarantee here for Little, but as we’ll say for the umpteenth time there is an opportunity for two-way players.